IL-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 15-25%" at 36.5% on "IL-02 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 13.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 15-25%
▲13.037%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $294Liquidity $9.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 15-25%
36.5%
▲13.0
Democrat 35-40%
36.0%
▲10.5
Democrat 50-55%
33.5%
▲11.5
Democrat 45-50%
33.5%
▲11.5
Democrat 40-45%
33.0%
▲7.0
Democrat 55%+
32.0%
▲6.0
Democrat 0-15%
31.0%
▲13.0
Democrat 25-30%
23.0%
▼2.0
Democrat 30-35%
20.5%
–
Republican Wins
0.35%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 15-25%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 55%+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
