IL-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 60%+" at 28.5% on "IL-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 4.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 60%+
4.028%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $45Liquidity $1.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 60%+
28.5%
4.0
Democrat 30-35%
28.5%
1.5
Democrat 45-50%
27.5%
3.0
Democrat 0-20%
27.0%
3.0
Democrat 50-55%
24.0%
6.5
Democrat 35-40%
22.5%
2.0
Democrat 40-45%
21.0%
1.5
Democrat 20-30%
21.0%
5.0
Democrat 55-60%
15.0%
8.0
Republican Wins
15.0%
7.0

Probability over time

Democrat 60%+
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 0-20%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 35-40%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.