IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 35-40%" at 23.5% on "IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory". $233 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 35-40%
–24%
PoliticsVol $233Total volume $13KLiquidity $70Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 35-40%
23.5%
–
Democrat 40-45%
21.9%
▲3.1
Democrat 30-35%
19.5%
▼8.0
Democrat 50-55%
14.5%
▲5.3
Democrat 45-50%
12.5%
▼2.8
Democrat 15-25%
11.8%
▲2.1
Democrat 55%+
10.2%
▲0.6
Democrat 25-30%
7.05%
–
Democrat 0-15%
4.30%
▲3.5
Republican Wins
0.30%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 15-25%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
