IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 25-30%" at 29.0% on "IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 25-30%
▼1.529%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $21Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 25-30%
29.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 55%+
28.5%
▼2.5
Democrat 35-40%
28.5%
▼5.0
Democrat 40-45%
28.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-15%
23.5%
–
Republican Wins
23.1%
▲19.7
Democrat 15-25%
23.0%
▼4.0
Democrat 30-35%
22.5%
▼1.0
Democrat 50-55%
21.5%
▼1.5
Democrat 45-50%
21.5%
▼2.0
Probability over time
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 55%+
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 0-15%
Republican Wins
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
