IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 45-50%" at 33.5% on "IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 5.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 45-50%
5.034%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $56Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 45-50%
33.5%
5.0
Democrat 60%+
33.0%
4.0
Democrat 30-35%
30.0%
1.5
Democrat 35-40%
29.0%
0.5
Democrat 40-45%
27.0%
4.0
Democrat 20-30%
27.0%
5.5
Democrat 55-60%
25.5%
3.5
Democrat 0-20%
23.5%
2.5
Democrat 50-55%
23.0%
2.0
Republican Wins
22.8%
19.7

Probability over time

Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 60%+
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 20-30%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.