IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 50-55%" at 32.8% on "IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 0.7%p from yesterday. $555 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 50-55%
▼0.733%
PoliticsVol $555Total volume $17KLiquidity $154Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 50-55%
32.8%
▼0.7
Democrat 45-50%
32.0%
▼1.0
Democrat 40-45%
16.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 55-60%
11.1%
▼0.5
Democrat 35-40%
6.95%
▼1.0
Democrat 20-30%
4.15%
▲2.7
Democrat 30-35%
3.65%
▼0.9
Democrat 60%+
3.45%
▼4.8
Republican Wins
0.30%
–
Democrat 0-20%
0.25%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 55-60%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 20-30%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
