IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 45-50%" at 33.5% on "IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 5.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 45-50%
▲5.034%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $56Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 45-50%
33.5%
▲5.0
Democrat 60%+
33.0%
▲4.0
Democrat 30-35%
30.0%
▲1.5
Democrat 35-40%
29.0%
▲0.5
Democrat 40-45%
27.0%
▲4.0
Democrat 20-30%
27.0%
▲5.5
Democrat 55-60%
25.5%
▲3.5
Democrat 0-20%
23.5%
▲2.5
Democrat 50-55%
23.0%
▲2.0
Republican Wins
22.8%
▲19.7
Probability over time
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 60%+
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 20-30%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
