IL-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 40-45%" at 30.6% on "IL-09 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 4.4%p from yesterday. $207 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 40-45%
▲4.431%
PoliticsVol $207Total volume $7.7KLiquidity $97Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 40-45%
30.6%
▲4.4
Democrat 45-50%
29.9%
▼1.1
Democrat 50-55%
16.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 60%+
14.4%
▲7.1
Democrat 55-60%
13.5%
▼1.0
Democrat 35-40%
12.3%
▲4.0
Democrat 30-35%
7.10%
–
Democrat 0-20%
5.90%
▲2.0
Democrat 20-30%
5.65%
▲1.2
Republican Wins
2.75%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 60%+
Democrat 55-60%
Democrat 35-40%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
