IL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 5-10%" at 30.5% on "IL-16 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 5-10%
▲1.531%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $320Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 5-10%
30.5%
▲1.5
Republican 10-15%
28.5%
–
Republican 20-25%
27.5%
▲1.0
Republican 0-5%
27.5%
▼0.5
Republican 15-20%
24.5%
▲1.5
Republican 25-30%
24.0%
▼3.0
Republican 30%+
21.5%
▲7.5
Democrat Wins
5.00%
▲0.5
Probability over time
Republican 5-10%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 0-5%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 25-30%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
