IN-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 26.0% on "IN-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 8.0%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
8.026%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $35Liquidity $1.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
26.0%
8.0
Republican 0-10%
26.0%
3.0
Republican 30-35%
25.5%
7.5
Republican 10-15%
25.5%
8.5
Republican 15-20%
25.0%
4.0
Republican 35-40%
22.0%
4.5
Republican 40%+
20.5%
6.0
Republican 20-25%
19.5%
5.5
Democrat Wins
16.0%
7.5

Probability over time

Republican 25-30%
Republican 0-10%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 35-40%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.