IN-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 26.0% on "IN-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 8.0%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
▼8.026%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $35Liquidity $1.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
26.0%
▼8.0
Republican 0-10%
26.0%
▼3.0
Republican 30-35%
25.5%
▼7.5
Republican 10-15%
25.5%
▼8.5
Republican 15-20%
25.0%
▼4.0
Republican 35-40%
22.0%
▼4.5
Republican 40%+
20.5%
▼6.0
Republican 20-25%
19.5%
▼5.5
Democrat Wins
16.0%
▼7.5
Probability over time
Republican 25-30%
Republican 0-10%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 35-40%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
