Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028
Polymarket traders put "Donald Trump" at 41.0% on "Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028". $400 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 20 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 8.
Most likely right now
Donald Trump
–41%
PoliticsVol $400Total volume $400Liquidity $31Kin 2 years (Nov 8)
Current probability
Nov 8 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Donald Trump
41.0%
–
Donald Trump Jr.
41.0%
▲0.5
Brian Kemp
41.0%
▲0.5
Tom Cotton
41.0%
▼0.5
J.D. Vance
40.5%
–
Marco Rubio
40.5%
–
Ron DeSantis
40.5%
–
Tucker Carlson
40.5%
–
Ivanka Trump
40.5%
–
Elon Musk
40.5%
–
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
40.5%
–
Rand Paul
40.5%
–
Marjorie Taylor Greene
40.5%
–
Pete Hegseth
40.5%
▲3.0
Vivek Ramaswamy
40.5%
▼1.0
Ted Cruz
40.0%
▼1.5
Greg Abbott
40.0%
▼1.5
Thomas Massie
21.0%
▼19.5
Glenn Youngkin
19.0%
▼21.5
Josh Hawley
19.0%
▼3.5
Probability over time
Donald Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Brian Kemp
Tom Cotton
J.D. Vance
Marco Rubio
2026-11-07 ~ 2026-11-08 · y-axis %
