Israel military action against Iraq by...?

Polymarket traders put "November 30" at 33.0% on "Israel military action against Iraq by...?". Up 9.5%p from yesterday. $93 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.

Most likely right now
November 30
▲9.533%
PoliticsVol $93Total volume $10KLiquidity $402Comments 1in 24 days (Dec 1)
Current probability

Nov 7 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
November 30
33.0%
▲9.5
October 31
21.9%
▲1.8

Probability over time

November 30
October 31
02550751009/2310/310/1110/1910/2711/411/7
2026-09-23 ~ 2026-11-07 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.