Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Polymarket traders put "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" at 6.0%. Down 1.5%p from yesterday. $35 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
▼1.56%
PoliticsVol $35Total volume $4.1MLiquidity $13KComments 979in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 14 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
6.00%
▼1.5

Probability over time

December 31
02550751008/259/79/159/2310/110/910/14
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-14 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.