KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 22.3% on "KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Unchanged from yesterday. $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
–22%
PoliticsVol $2.2KTotal volume $21KLiquidity $137Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
22.3%
–
Republican 20-25%
14.8%
–
Republican 15-20%
14.2%
▲1.3
Republican 30-35%
13.9%
▲7.8
Republican 45%+
12.6%
▼5.3
Republican 35-40%
7.35%
–
Republican 5-15%
2.75%
–
Republican 40-45%
2.70%
▲0.5
Republican 0-5%
2.00%
▼1.9
Democrat Wins
0.05%
–
Probability over time
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 45%+
Republican 35-40%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-11 · y-axis %
