KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 5-15%" at 37.0% on "KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 5-15%
▼1.037%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $214Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 5-15%
37.0%
▼1.0
Republican 25-30%
33.5%
▲2.5
Republican 40-45%
32.0%
▲0.5
Republican 30-35%
31.5%
▲3.0
Republican 0-5%
31.0%
▼1.0
Republican 45%+
28.0%
▼5.0
Republican 35-40%
27.5%
▼3.5
Republican 20-25%
27.0%
▼8.0
Republican 15-20%
27.0%
▼5.5
Democrat Wins
4.50%
▼0.5
Probability over time
Republican 5-15%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 0-5%
Republican 45%+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
