MD-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Most likely right now
Democrat 40-45%
0.535%
PoliticsVol $192Total volume $221Liquidity $1.4Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 40-45%
34.5%
0.5
Democrat 35-40%
31.0%
6.0
Democrat 0-5%
31.0%
4.0
Democrat 45%+
28.0%
4.5
Democrat 30-35%
27.0%
9.0
Democrat 15-20%
26.5%
3.0
Democrat 20-25%
26.0%
8.0
Democrat 5-15%
26.0%
4.5
Democrat 25-30%
21.0%
6.0
Republican Wins
6.50%
2.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.