MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 80-85%" at 32.5% on "MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 80-85%
▲1.033%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $22KLiquidity $143Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 80-85%
32.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 85-90%
22.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 75-80%
20.5%
▲2.5
Democrat 70-75%
6.60%
▼6.5
Democrat 90%+
6.55%
–
Democrat 65-70%
5.95%
–
Democrat 0-50%
0.40%
–
Democrat 60-65%
0.05%
–
Democrat 50-60%
0.05%
–
Republican Wins
0.05%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 80-85%
Democrat 85-90%
Democrat 75-80%
Democrat 70-75%
Democrat 90%+
Democrat 65-70%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
