MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Most likely right now
Democrat 75-80%
2.039%
PoliticsVol $20Total volume $259Liquidity $9.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 75-80%
38.5%
2.0
Democrat 90%+
35.0%
2.0
Democrat 70-75%
32.5%
7.0
Democrat 80-85%
27.0%
8.5
Democrat 50-60%
27.0%
9.5
Democrat 0-50%
26.0%
10.0
Democrat 85-90%
25.0%
6.5
Democrat 65-70%
23.0%
14.0
Republican Wins
2.70%
2.2

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.