MI-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 40%+" at 31.5% on "MI-05 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 40%+
1.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 40%+
31.5%
1.5
Republican 15-20%
31.0%
2.0
Republican 10-15%
31.0%
2.5
Republican 30-35%
26.5%
2.0
Democrat Wins
24.5%
0.5
Republican 35-40%
23.5%
1.0
Republican 25-30%
23.0%
1.0
Republican 20-25%
23.0%
2.0
Republican 0-10%
23.0%
2.5

Probability over time

Republican 40%+
Republican 15-20%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 30-35%
Democrat Wins
Republican 35-40%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.