MI-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Most likely right now
Democrat 50%+
4.533%
PoliticsVol $63Total volume $75Liquidity $1.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 50%+
32.5%
4.5
Democrat 40-45%
29.5%
2.0
Democrat 20-25%
28.5%
8.5
Democrat 10-20%
28.0%
2.0
Democrat 0-10%
25.5%
10.5
Democrat 25-30%
25.0%
12.0
Democrat 45-50%
23.5%
8.5
Republican Wins
18.5%
5.0
Democrat 30-35%
15.5%
21.5
Democrat 35-40%
15.0%
21.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.