MN-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 45-50%" at 28.8% on "MN-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Unchanged from yesterday. $652 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 45-50%
–29%
PoliticsVol $652Total volume $10KLiquidity $141Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 45-50%
28.8%
–
Democrat 50-55%
23.5%
▼3.5
Democrat 40-45%
18.0%
▼4.5
Democrat 35-40%
13.4%
▲6.3
Democrat 60%+
10.3%
▼4.3
Democrat 0-20%
4.05%
–
Democrat 55-60%
2.90%
–
Democrat 20-30%
2.90%
–
Democrat 30-35%
2.45%
▼1.4
Republican Wins
0.35%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 60%+
Democrat 0-20%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
