MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 5-10%" at 31.5% on "MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 5-10%
▼1.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.3Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 5-10%
31.5%
▼1.5
Republican 0-5%
31.5%
▼9.0
Republican 25-30%
29.5%
▼3.5
Republican 10-15%
29.5%
▼10.0
Republican 30%+
25.5%
▼6.0
Republican 20-25%
24.0%
▼10.5
Republican 15-20%
22.5%
▼10.5
Democrat Wins
21.5%
▼8.0
Probability over time
Republican 5-10%
Republican 0-5%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 30%+
Republican 20-25%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
