MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 30%+" at 61.5% on "MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Unchanged from yesterday. $168 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 30%+
–62%
PoliticsVol $168Total volume $14KLiquidity $134Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 30%+
61.5%
–
Republican 25-30%
14.5%
▼0.5
Republican 20-25%
11.0%
▼0.5
Republican 15-20%
6.70%
–
Republican 10-15%
5.25%
–
Democrat Wins
4.25%
–
Republican 0-5%
2.95%
–
Republican 5-10%
1.65%
–
Probability over time
Republican 30%+
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 10-15%
Democrat Wins
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
