MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 5-10%" at 31.5% on "MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 5-10%
1.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.3Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 5-10%
31.5%
1.5
Republican 0-5%
31.5%
9.0
Republican 25-30%
29.5%
3.5
Republican 10-15%
29.5%
10.0
Republican 30%+
25.5%
6.0
Republican 20-25%
24.0%
10.5
Republican 15-20%
22.5%
10.5
Democrat Wins
21.5%
8.0

Probability over time

Republican 5-10%
Republican 0-5%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 30%+
Republican 20-25%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.