MS-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 33.0% on "MS-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)". Down 5.0%p from yesterday. $160 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
▼5.033%
PoliticsVol $160Total volume $24KLiquidity $114Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
33.0%
▼5.0
Republican 20-25%
25.0%
–
Republican 30-35%
20.0%
▲7.0
Republican 5-15%
7.45%
–
Republican 15-20%
6.60%
▼3.4
Republican 35-40%
6.35%
▼1.2
Republican 45%+
2.85%
–
Republican 40-45%
1.60%
–
Republican 0-5%
0.55%
–
Democrat Wins
0.15%
–
Probability over time
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 5-15%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 35-40%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
