MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 20-25%" at 26.0% on "MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. $138 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 20-25%
▲2.526%
PoliticsVol $138Total volume $14KLiquidity $103Kin 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 20-25%
26.0%
▲2.5
Democrat 30-35%
23.0%
▼2.5
Democrat 25-30%
19.5%
–
Democrat 35-40%
18.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 15-20%
16.4%
▲7.9
Democrat 40-45%
6.60%
–
Democrat 45%+
4.05%
–
Democrat 5-15%
0.15%
–
Democrat 0-5%
0.15%
–
Republican Wins
0.15%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 40-45%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
