MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Most likely right now
Democrat 25-30%
6.038%
PoliticsVol $20Total volume $20Liquidity $9.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 25-30%
38.0%
6.0
Democrat 30-35%
24.5%
12.0
Democrat 0-5%
24.0%
14.5
Democrat 15-20%
23.5%
11.0
Democrat 35-40%
23.0%
12.5
Democrat 20-25%
20.0%
14.5
Democrat 5-15%
18.0%
18.5
Democrat 40-45%
17.0%
18.0
Democrat 45%+
16.0%
22.5
Republican Wins
8.50%
14.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.