MS-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 33.0% on "MS-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)". Down 3.0%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
▼3.033%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.2Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
33.0%
▼3.0
Republican 0-10%
32.0%
▼4.5
Republican 20-25%
30.0%
▲2.5
Republican 40%+
29.0%
▼9.0
Republican 30-35%
29.0%
▼4.5
Republican 35-40%
25.5%
▼11.5
Republican 25-30%
24.0%
▼14.0
Republican 10-15%
22.5%
▼12.5
Democrat Wins
17.0%
▲16.4
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
