MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket traders put "Republican 40-45%" at 37.5% on "MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 40-45%
▲0.538%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $70Liquidity $9.2Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 40-45%
37.5%
▲0.5
Republican 35-40%
24.5%
▼12.5
Republican 25-30%
24.5%
▼14.5
Republican 45-50%
23.5%
▼14.0
Republican 20-25%
21.5%
▼9.0
Republican 0-10%
21.5%
▼4.0
Republican 50%+
20.0%
▼15.5
Republican 30-35%
20.0%
▼18.0
Republican 10-20%
16.5%
▼11.5
Democrat Wins
1.95%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
