MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket traders put "Republican 35-40%" at 29.5% on "MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $40 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 35-40%
▼0.530%
PoliticsVol $40Total volume $7.3KLiquidity $151Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 35-40%
29.5%
▼0.5
Republican 30-35%
28.3%
▼1.1
Republican 40-45%
25.5%
–
Republican 25-30%
7.50%
▼2.0
Republican 50%+
7.00%
–
Republican 45-50%
5.60%
▼4.1
Republican 10-20%
3.80%
▲0.7
Republican 20-25%
0.55%
–
Democrat Wins
0.50%
▼0.5
Republican 0-10%
0.25%
–
Probability over time
Republican 35-40%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 50%+
Republican 45-50%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
