Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Polymarket traders put "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?" at 7.2%. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–7%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $945KLiquidity $18KComments 47in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
7.25%
–

Probability over time

December 31, 2026
02550751008/259/79/159/2310/110/910/11
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-11 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.