NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

Polymarket traders put "September 30" at 49.5% on "NATO downs another Russian drone by...?". Down 14.5%p from yesterday. $308 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
September 30
14.550%
PoliticsVol $308Total volume $39KLiquidity $766in 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
September 30
49.5%
14.5
September 15
40.5%
8.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.