Next UK by-election called by…?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 38.5% on "Next UK by-election called by…?". Down 4.5%p from yesterday. $124 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
4.539%
PoliticsVol $124Total volume $124Liquidity $719in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Sep 16 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
38.5%
4.5
October 31
13.0%
20.0

Probability over time

December 31
October 31
02550751009/159/16
2026-09-15 ~ 2026-09-16 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.