Next UK by-election called by…?
Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 42.0% on "Next UK by-election called by…?". Up 12.0%p from yesterday. $198 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
▲12.042%
PoliticsVol $198Total volume $2.2KLiquidity $11Kin 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Nov 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
42.0%
▲12.0
October 31
0.15%
–
Probability over time
December 31
October 31
2026-09-15 ~ 2026-11-01 · y-axis %
