NM-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 30-35%" at 31.0% on "NM-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 12.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 30-35%
12.531%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $40Liquidity $1.9Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 30-35%
31.0%
12.5
Democrat 10-15%
30.0%
3.0
Democrat 35%+
27.0%
Democrat 0-5%
27.0%
5.0
Democrat 15-20%
26.0%
1.5
Democrat 5-10%
26.0%
11.0
Democrat 25-30%
24.0%
5.0
Republican Wins
17.5%
11.0
Democrat 20-25%
16.0%
1.0

Probability over time

Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 35%+
Democrat 0-5%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 5-10%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.