NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 10-15%" at 31.0% on "NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 10-15%
▼1.531%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $172Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 10-15%
31.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 5-10%
29.5%
▲3.0
Democrat 20-25%
29.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 0-5%
28.0%
▼1.0
Democrat 30%+
26.0%
–
Democrat 15-20%
26.0%
▲0.5
Democrat 25-30%
23.0%
▼1.5
Republican Wins
21.5%
▼0.5
Probability over time
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 0-5%
Democrat 30%+
Democrat 15-20%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
