NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 10-15%" at 27.5% on "NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 5.0%p from yesterday. $674 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 10-15%
▲5.028%
PoliticsVol $674Total volume $11KLiquidity $51Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 10-15%
27.5%
▲5.0
Democrat 15-20%
19.0%
▼12.5
Democrat 20-25%
17.5%
▲7.5
Democrat 5-10%
9.70%
▼5.7
Democrat 25-30%
8.05%
–
Republican Wins
6.70%
▼2.2
Democrat 30%+
3.70%
▼27.6
Democrat 0-5%
0.45%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 25-30%
Republican Wins
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-11 · y-axis %
