NY-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 50-55%" at 31.5% on "NY-05 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 5.0%p from yesterday. $965 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 50-55%
▼5.032%
PoliticsVol $965Total volume $19KLiquidity $108Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 50-55%
31.5%
▼5.0
Democrat 55-60%
23.0%
▲1.0
Democrat 45-50%
22.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 60-65%
17.2%
▲0.9
Democrat 40-45%
7.25%
–
Republican Wins
7.15%
▼1.5
Democrat 30-40%
6.70%
▲2.1
Democrat 0-30%
3.15%
–
Democrat 70%+
1.35%
–
Democrat 65-70%
1.35%
▲1.1
Probability over time
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 55-60%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 60-65%
Democrat 40-45%
Republican Wins
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
