OK-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 30-35%" at 36.0% on "OK-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 8.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 30-35%
▲8.536%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $222Liquidity $9.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 30-35%
36.0%
▲8.5
Republican 15-20%
33.5%
▲3.0
Republican 45%+
32.5%
▲4.0
Republican 20-25%
31.0%
▼1.5
Republican 25-30%
30.0%
▼3.0
Republican 0-5%
28.5%
▲1.0
Republican 40-45%
27.5%
▲1.0
Republican 5-15%
25.5%
▲1.0
Republican 35-40%
25.0%
▼1.5
Democrat Wins
3.55%
–
Probability over time
Republican 30-35%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 45%+
Republican 20-25%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 0-5%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
