OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 20-25%" at 26.5% on "OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.5%p from yesterday. $225 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 20-25%
▲1.527%
PoliticsVol $225Total volume $20KLiquidity $123Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 20-25%
26.5%
▲1.5
Democrat 25-30%
26.3%
▲1.3
Democrat 15-20%
24.5%
▼0.5
Democrat 10-15%
11.5%
▲3.5
Democrat 5-10%
6.95%
▼1.9
Democrat 30-35%
6.45%
▼2.8
Democrat 0-5%
4.25%
▲0.6
Republican Wins
3.65%
▲0.7
Democrat 35%+
1.20%
▼1.9
Probability over time
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 30-35%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
