OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 15-20%" at 24.5% on "OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. $5 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 15-20%
▲2.525%
PoliticsVol $5Total volume $5Liquidity $1.8Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 15-20%
24.5%
▲2.5
Democrat 0-5%
23.0%
▼2.5
Democrat 20-25%
22.0%
▲0.5
Democrat 35%+
21.5%
▼4.0
Democrat 5-10%
21.5%
▼4.0
Democrat 10-15%
21.0%
▼4.5
Democrat 25-30%
15.5%
▼2.5
Republican Wins
13.7%
▲4.2
Democrat 30-35%
13.0%
▼5.0
Probability over time
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 0-5%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 35%+
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 10-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
