Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 93.0% on "Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?". Up 6.5%p from yesterday. $423 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
▲6.593%
PoliticsVol $423Total volume $4.5KLiquidity $40Kin 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Nov 15 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
93.0%
▲6.5
November 30
65.0%
▼9.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.