TN-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 45-50%" at 28.5% on "TN-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Unchanged from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 45-50%
–29%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $15KLiquidity $106Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 45-50%
28.5%
–
Republican 50-55%
25.0%
▼0.5
Republican 40-45%
24.5%
–
Republican 35-40%
9.45%
▼0.7
Republican 60%+
5.95%
–
Republican 55-60%
5.05%
–
Republican 30-35%
5.05%
–
Republican 20-30%
1.35%
–
Republican 0-20%
0.25%
–
Democrat Wins
0.15%
–
Probability over time
Republican 45-50%
Republican 50-55%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 60%+
Republican 55-60%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
