TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 45%+" at 32.0% on "TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 45%+
0.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 45%+
32.0%
0.5
Democrat 5-15%
32.0%
Democrat 25-30%
31.5%
4.0
Democrat 0-5%
29.5%
4.5
Democrat 20-25%
29.0%
4.5
Democrat 15-20%
29.0%
6.5
Republican Wins
28.7%
7.0
Democrat 35-40%
26.0%
Democrat 30-35%
23.5%
3.0
Democrat 40-45%
22.0%
7.5

Probability over time

Democrat 45%+
Democrat 5-15%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 0-5%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 15-20%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.