Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

Polymarket traders put "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?" at 0.7%. Unchanged from yesterday. $167 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Nov 1.

Most likely right now
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
–1%
PoliticsVol $167Total volume $24KLiquidity $19Kin 10 days (Nov 1)
Current probability

Oct 22 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
0.70%
–

Probability over time

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
02550751009/19/109/199/2810/710/1610/22
2026-09-01 ~ 2026-10-22 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.