U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders put "5–15%" at 31.5% on "U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?". Up 4.5%p from yesterday. $787 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
5–15%
▲4.532%
PoliticsVol $787Total volume $787Liquidity $18KComments 1in 3 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Sep 24 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5–15%
31.5%
▲4.5
25–35%
21.5%
▲4.5
<5%
20.0%
▼3.5
15–25%
17.5%
▲3.0
35%+
0.65%
▼24.3
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
