U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders put "5–15%" at 91.0% on "U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?". Up 1.5%p from yesterday. $9 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
5–15%
▲1.591%
PoliticsVol $9Total volume $14KLiquidity $35KComments 3in 2 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Nov 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5–15%
91.0%
▲1.5
15–25%
8.00%
▲0.5
<5%
1.45%
–
35%+
1.35%
–
25–35%
1.05%
–
Probability over time
5–15%
15–25%
<5%
35%+
25–35%
2026-09-24 ~ 2026-11-10 · y-axis %
