VA-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 6-9%" at 34.5% on "VA-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 6-9%
2.535%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $100Liquidity $1.2Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 6-9%
34.5%
2.5
Republican 9-12%
33.5%
1.0
Democrat 6-9%
33.5%
4.0
Democrat 9-12%
30.5%
0.5
Democrat 12%+
30.5%
5.0
Republican 12%+
30.0%
1.0
Republican 0-3%
28.0%
9.0
Democrat 3-6%
25.0%
8.0
Democrat 0-3%
20.5%
9.0
Republican 3-6%
14.0%
9.0

Probability over time

Republican 6-9%
Republican 9-12%
Democrat 6-9%
Democrat 9-12%
Democrat 12%+
Republican 12%+
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.