VA-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 12-15%" at 33.0% on "VA-02 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 12-15%
1.033%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $96Liquidity $1.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 12-15%
33.0%
1.0
Democrat 6-9%
33.0%
7.5
Democrat 0-3%
30.0%
4.5
Republican 6%+
27.6%
23.4
Democrat 15-18%
27.5%
3.5
Democrat 9-12%
27.5%
1.5
Democrat 3-6%
25.0%
1.5
Republican 0-3%
24.5%
6.5
Democrat 18%+
22.0%
4.0
Republican 3-6%
21.0%
2.0

Probability over time

Democrat 12-15%
Democrat 6-9%
Democrat 0-3%
Republican 6%+
Democrat 15-18%
Democrat 9-12%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.