VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 35-40%" at 25.5% on "VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 12.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 35-40%
12.526%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $258Liquidity $1.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 35-40%
25.5%
12.5
Democrat 30-35%
24.5%
1.5
Democrat 50-55%
24.0%
13.5
Democrat 55%+
22.5%
7.5
Democrat 25-30%
22.0%
0.5
Democrat 0-15%
22.0%
9.5
Democrat 15-25%
21.5%
2.0
Democrat 40-45%
20.0%
6.0
Democrat 45-50%
16.5%
15.0
Republican Wins
9.00%
3.5

Probability over time

Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 55%+
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 0-15%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.