VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 5-15%" at 23.5% on "VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 3.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 5-15%
▼3.524%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $220Liquidity $11Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 5-15%
23.5%
▼3.5
Democrat 25-30%
23.0%
▼3.5
Democrat 20-25%
23.0%
▼3.5
Democrat 45%+
22.5%
▼3.5
Democrat 35-40%
21.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 30-35%
21.0%
–
Democrat 40-45%
19.5%
–
Democrat 15-20%
19.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-5%
19.0%
▼3.0
Republican Wins
6.50%
▼1.0
Probability over time
Democrat 5-15%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 45%+
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 30-35%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
