VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 45%+" at 39.5% on "VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. $408 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 45%+
▲1.040%
PoliticsVol $408Total volume $6.5KLiquidity $181Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 45%+
39.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 40-45%
35.5%
▲2.0
Democrat 35-40%
19.5%
▲1.5
Democrat 30-35%
3.80%
▼4.2
Democrat 5-15%
2.95%
▲0.7
Democrat 15-20%
2.35%
▲1.9
Republican Wins
2.35%
▼5.3
Democrat 25-30%
1.65%
–
Democrat 20-25%
0.50%
–
Democrat 0-5%
0.30%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 45%+
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 5-15%
Democrat 15-20%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
