Waitaki Ōamaru Ward By-Election Winner

Polymarket traders put "Keith Marshall" at 76.0% on "Waitaki Ōamaru Ward By-Election Winner". Up 6.0%p from yesterday. $505 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 28.

Most likely right now
Keith Marshall
▲6.076%
PoliticsVol $505Total volume $699Liquidity $1.5Kin 13 days (Nov 28)
Current probability

Nov 15 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Keith Marshall
76.0%
▲6.0
Richard Vinbrux
24.5%
▲1.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.