Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
Polymarket traders put "National + ACT + NZF" at 42.5% on "Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $836 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 18 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 8.
Most likely right now
National + ACT + NZF
▼1.043%
PoliticsVol $836Total volume $59KLiquidity $355KComments 10in 28 days (Nov 8)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
National + ACT + NZF
42.5%
▼1.0
Labour + Green
27.0%
▼1.9
Labour + Green + Maori
18.5%
–
Other
8.35%
▼0.5
Labour + Maori
0.85%
–
Labour + Green + NZF
0.75%
–
National + Labour
0.65%
–
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
0.50%
–
National + ACT
0.50%
–
National + NZF
0.45%
–
Labour
0.25%
–
Labour + NZF
0.15%
–
Labour + Maori + NZF
0.15%
–
National
0.15%
–
National + Maori
0.15%
–
National + ACT + Maori
0.15%
–
National + NZF + Maori
0.15%
–
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
0.15%
–
Probability over time
National + ACT + NZF
Labour + Green
Labour + Green + Maori
Other
Labour + Maori
Labour + Green + NZF
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
