Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
Polymarket traders put "National + ACT + NZF" at 38.5% on "Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?". Down 3.5%p from yesterday. $431 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 18 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 7.
Most likely right now
National + ACT + NZF
▼3.539%
PoliticsVol $431Total volume $52KLiquidity $313KComments 9in 2 months (Nov 7)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
National + ACT + NZF
38.5%
▼3.5
Labour + Green
20.4%
▼9.3
Labour + Green + Maori
16.0%
▲2.0
Other
9.85%
–
Labour
1.70%
▲0.8
Labour + Green + NZF
1.00%
–
National + ACT
0.90%
–
Labour + Maori
0.70%
–
National + Maori
0.55%
–
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
0.35%
–
Labour + NZF
0.25%
–
National + NZF
0.25%
–
Labour + Maori + NZF
0.15%
–
National
0.15%
–
National + ACT + Maori
0.15%
–
National + NZF + Maori
0.15%
–
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
0.15%
–
National + Labour
0.15%
–
Probability over time
National + ACT + NZF
Labour + Green
Labour + Green + Maori
Other
Labour
Labour + Green + NZF
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
