Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
Polymarket traders put "PSD + PNL + USR + AUR" at 21.4% on "Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?". Unchanged from yesterday. $48 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 32 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
–21%
PoliticsVol $48Total volume $28KLiquidity $168Kin 1.3 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Sep 23 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
21.4%
–
PSD + PNL + UDMR
14.8%
▼4.5
PSD
12.5%
–
Other
11.5%
▼19.1
PSD + AUR
7.95%
–
PSD + UDMR
6.60%
▼1.7
PSD + PNL
6.15%
–
USR + UDMR
6.15%
–
PSD + PNL + USR
6.15%
–
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
6.15%
–
PNL + USR
6.10%
–
AUR
6.00%
▼8.8
PNL + USR + UDMR
6.00%
–
PNL
5.60%
–
PSD + USR + UDMR
4.70%
–
PSD + PNL + AUR
3.60%
–
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
3.60%
–
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
2.60%
–
PSD + USR
2.15%
–
PNL + UDMR
2.15%
–
UDMR
2.10%
–
UDMR + AUR
2.10%
–
PNL + UDMR + AUR
1.30%
–
USR
1.15%
–
PNL + AUR
1.10%
–
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1.10%
–
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1.05%
–
USR + UDMR + AUR
1.05%
–
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1.05%
–
USR + AUR
0.90%
–
Probability over time
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
PSD + PNL + UDMR
PSD
Other
PSD + AUR
PSD + UDMR
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-09-23 · y-axis %
