Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket traders put "No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate" at 62.0% on "Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?". $27K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
–62%
PoliticsVol $27KTotal volume $26KLiquidity $1.2Min 22 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 13 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
62.0%
–
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
31.6%
–
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
2.95%
–
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
2.15%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
