WI-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 55-60%" at 36.0% on "WI-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.1%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 55-60%
▲2.136%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $9.9KLiquidity $137Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 55-60%
36.0%
▲2.1
Democrat 60-65%
31.0%
▲1.5
Democrat 50-55%
16.5%
▲5.5
Democrat 65-70%
16.3%
▼1.3
Democrat 70%+
5.00%
–
Democrat 45-50%
3.85%
▲0.7
Democrat 0-30%
1.90%
–
Democrat 40-45%
0.55%
–
Democrat 30-40%
0.30%
–
Republican Wins
0.15%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 55-60%
Democrat 60-65%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 65-70%
Democrat 70%+
Democrat 45-50%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
