WI-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 30-40%" at 29.0% on "WI-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 2.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 30-40%
2.529%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $5Liquidity $9.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 30-40%
29.0%
2.5
Democrat 60-65%
27.0%
Democrat 50-55%
27.0%
8.5
Democrat 45-50%
27.0%
3.0
Democrat 40-45%
26.0%
0.5
Democrat 0-30%
22.5%
6.5
Democrat 70%+
20.5%
3.0
Democrat 55-60%
19.5%
6.0
Democrat 65-70%
18.5%
10.0
Republican Wins
2.25%
21.5

Probability over time

Democrat 30-40%
Democrat 60-65%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 0-30%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.