Will Hezbollah target Israel by...?

Polymarket traders put "November 30" at 36.5% on "Will Hezbollah target Israel by...?". $259 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.

Most likely right now
November 30
–37%
PoliticsVol $259Total volume $259Liquidity $583in 25 days (Dec 1)
Current probability

Nov 6 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
November 30
36.5%
–
November 15
15.0%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.