Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

Polymarket traders put "November 30" at 48.5% on "Will Iran target Bahrain by...?". $199 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.

Most likely right now
November 30
–49%
PoliticsVol $199Total volume $199Liquidity $301in 16 days (Dec 1)
Current probability

Nov 15 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
November 30
48.5%
–
November 22
38.5%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.