Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?
Polymarket traders put "10+" at 55.0% on "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?". $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.
Most likely right now
10+
–55%
PoliticsVol $2.5KTotal volume $2.5KLiquidity $26Kin 1 months (Dec 1)
Current probability
Nov 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
10+
55.0%
–
20+
28.0%
–
30+
18.0%
–
40+
12.5%
–
50+
6.00%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
