Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?

Polymarket traders put "10+" at 81.5% on "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?". $72 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
10+
82%
PoliticsVol $72Total volume $12KLiquidity $12Kin 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
10+
81.5%
20+
31.0%
0.5
30+
15.5%
0.5
40+
14.5%
50+
11.0%
1.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.