Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
Polymarket traders put "10+" at 81.5% on "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?". $72 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.
Most likely right now
10+
–82%
PoliticsVol $72Total volume $12KLiquidity $12Kin 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability
Sep 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
10+
81.5%
–
20+
31.0%
▲0.5
30+
15.5%
▼0.5
40+
14.5%
–
50+
11.0%
▲1.0
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
