IAEA: Iran's Nuclear Development Continues Despite Israeli Airstrikes

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that it is impossible to completely dismantle Iran's nuclear program, despite ongoing military airstrikes targeting the country's nuclear facilities. Grossi told reporters on the 18th (local time) that the current strikes by the United States and Israel would not be able to completely dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. When asked if the nuclear program could be resolved militarily, he replied that he does not believe it is possible, considering the scale of the extensive facilities, expertise, and infrastructure built over decades. He judged that nuclear material and enrichment capabilities would still remain even after military measures, and that ultimately, negotiations would have to resume in some form.

According to the IAEA's technical assessment, Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remain largely intact compared to before the airstrikes. Most of the core material is stored at the Isfahan nuclear complex, with some quantities also understood to remain at the Natanz facility. This highlights the structural limitations of Iran's sensitive nuclear infrastructure and uranium storage, which are buried deep underground, making them difficult to destroy with simple airstrikes alone. While some surface facilities and support infrastructure were damaged by the attacks from the United States and Israel, the core elements of the nuclear program remain intact.

Experts analyze that the highly enriched uranium stored in Isfahan and other locations is managed in mobile containers deep underground, making it difficult to completely destroy or secure without direct access to the facilities. It remains unclear whether even the U.S. side knows the exact location of all the uranium, and the possibility of the nuclear material being dispersed due to the potential movement of storage containers cannot be ruled out.

As of mid-2025, Iran is estimated to possess approximately 441 kg of 60% enriched uranium, a quantity sufficient to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enrichment is carried out. Experts believe Iran could reach weapons-grade enrichment in a matter of weeks under ideal conditions. However, it is expected to take additional time to produce a deliverable weapon and establish the necessary systems.

The underground nature of nuclear facilities and the mobility of materials continue to pose a persistent obstacle to international responses, even as U.S. President Donald Trump pursues a dual strategy of diplomatic efforts and military responses to resolve the Iran nuclear crisis.