President Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Drops to 52%; Ruling Party Accelerates Push for 'Sovereign Citizen' Constitutional Amendment in 2027

Constitutional Amendment Phase Begins in Earnest Amid Plum Approval Ratings

Positive assessments of President Lee Jae-myung’s state administration stood at 52%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week. Conversely, negative ratings rose 2 percentage points to 37%, marking a decline for the second consecutive week. This subtle shift in public opinion carries significant implications beyond simple fluctuations, aligning as it does with the political calendar. Marking the 78th anniversary of Constitution Day, President Lee declared his intent to designate every December 3rd as 'Sovereign Citizen Day.' This move is interpreted not merely as the establishment of a new holiday, but as an intention to restructure the very foundations of the current constitutional system.

Aligning with this, Democratic Party Chairman Cho Je-sik set forth a schedule to finalize a 'Sovereign Citizen' constitutional amendment by 2027 within the 22nd National Assembly. Chairman Cho clarified the timeline for constitutional restructuring during the Constitution Day ceremony. Analysts suggest that accelerating discussions for a swift amendment, even as the President’s approval ratings slow to the early 50s, is a strategic calculation aimed at completing the framework for institutional change before political momentum weakens. It is a step designed to cement the structure of power reproduction through elections at an early stage.

Causes of Declining Approval and Launch of New Party Chapter in Busan

The drop in approval ratings appears to stem from political friction surrounding prosecutorial reform and noise arising during the handling of key issues. The Blue House has repeatedly reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to a reform policy that separates investigation from prosecution, striving to halt unreasonable controversy. President Lee has also called for sufficient internal deliberation regarding supplementary investigative authority to shore up internal unity. Nevertheless, the polling figures likely reflect the exodus of moderate conservatives wary of radical reform.

The opposition People Power Party (PPP) launched a new leadership in Busan in an effort to break through its difficulties. With the election of Rep. Lee Seong-kwon as the new chairman of the PPP Busan chapter, the party aims to exploit the dip in Lee Jae-myung’s support and defend its stronghold in the Yeongnam region. Rep. Lee, leveraging his policy experience gained on the Climate, Energy, Environment, and Labor Committee and the Budget and Accounts Special Committee, has been tasked with rallying regional public sentiment. He has previously rebutted claims that local government heads' budget demands are equivalent to mandatory obligations imposed by the central government. With accountability for the local election defeat still looming, how he manages intra-party divisions and checks the Lee Jae-myung administration's policies will be a key variable in the political landscape moving forward.

Economic and Industrial Impact of Constitutional Restructuring

The evolving political schedule is leading to policy uncertainty, significantly impacting the macroeconomy. The government's 'People's Growth Fund,' launched with a scale of 150 trillion won to secure growth drivers for the next 20 years, has been given the green light with the selection of the Sinan-Ui offshore wind project as its inaugural mega-project. However, a shift in the power structure via the 2027 constitutional amendment poses risks that could apply the brakes to the continuity of such long-term infrastructure investment plans. If the political system transitions from a presidential system to a cabinet-responsibility or dual-executive system, there is a risk of policy shifts causing the leadership of major energy projects like offshore wind to oscillate between businesses, the government, and local bodies.

From an investor's perspective, the possibility of valuation adjustments in the infrastructure and energy sectors as they enter a transitionary constitutional period cannot be ruled out, as the passage of an amendment could lead to delays in major corporate capital investment decisions. Market volatility is expected to expand due to artificial policy shocks. Furthermore, President Lee recently ordered the Chairman of the Korea Exchange to swiftly prepare supplementary measures for leveraged ETFs during a Blue House briefing on the 15th. Regardless of the financial authorities' intention to curb overheating in the asset market, this political pressure on the capital market, coinciding with the constitutional amendment phase, is likely to act as a factor dampening investor sentiment.