Record Early Voting Turnout Divides Parties on Interpretation

The early voting rate for the 6th National Simultaneous Local Elections reached an all-time high of 23.51%. This result, with 10,498,411 out of a total of 44,649,908 eligible voters participating, marks an increase of approximately 1.36 million voters compared to the 2022 local elections. While early voter turnout increased by about 1.36 million, the lowest turnout region was Daegu (18.65%), and the highest was Jeonnam (38.95%). The early voting rate for the National Assembly by-elections, held concurrently with the June 3rd local elections, was 24.12%.

Both the ruling and opposition parties engaged in heated debate, offering divergent interpretations of the high early voting rate. The Democratic Party of Korea interpreted the high turnout as the 'public's will to judge the administration' or 'support for the current government's state affairs,' framing it as a call for 'judgment against the administration.' They cited the relatively lower early voting rates in Daegu (18.65%) and Gyeongbuk (22.42%) as evidence that judgment against the Democratic Party and the current administration was taking place.

The People Power Party defined it as a 'strong warning from the public towards arrogant power' and a 'judgment against Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party,' suggesting the possibility of 'shy conservatives mobilizing.' Jang Dong-hyuk, the People Power Party's Election Committee Headquarters Chief, emphasized that as early voting turnout increased, the final turnout should also rise, turning the public's anger over the arrogance of Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party into votes. Chung Hee-yong, another Election Committee Headquarters Chief for the People Power Party, stated in a press release on the 30th, 'The high early voting rate is a strong warning from the public towards arrogant power that disregards public opinion,' and analyzed that voters participated due to 'public anger over attempts to cancel trials to erase the president's alleged guilt,' 'public frustration over the receding dream of homeownership,' and 'citizens and residents who believe they cannot entrust their regions to candidates whose qualifications and abilities have not been verified.'

Park Sung-min, CEO of Political Consulting Min, and Democratic Party leader Chung Cheong-rae, among others, suggested that the increase in early voting turnout could be attributed to the dispersal of overall voter participation as the system becomes established, or the tendency for voters to have 'other errands' on the main election day, presenting the view that high early voting turnout may not necessarily lead to high final turnout. The record-breaking early voting turnout has generated conflicting interpretations among political parties regarding election outcome predictions, and both the ruling and opposition parties are expected to utilize this figure as a favorable basis for rallying their supporters during the ongoing election campaign.